March 13, 2019

The confusing message from the India bond market

In this Mint article, Research Director and Senior Fellow Niranjan Rajadhyaksha anaylses RBI's role in the bond market.


"The bond market had rallied soon after the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) announced a surprise rate cut on 7 February. The overwhelming consensus in the days preceding the policy announcement was that the Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) would shift its stance back to neutral but would not actually bring down the repo rate.


The consensus is now shifting. There have been growing expectations since then that the Indian central bank will cut rates once again when its Monetary Policy Committee meets in April. However, the bond market is not reflecting these more dovish times. The yields on 10-year government bonds have barely budged once the brief rally dissipated a few days after the February rate cut. A few bankers I spoke to even argue that lending rates will go up in the coming months even if RBI brings down policy rates."


Read the full article here.

Topic : State Capacity / In : OP-EDS
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