Praveen Chakravarty, in this Times of India article, discusses BJP's sweeping win in the UP Legislative Assembly elections 2017, perusing data that unambiguously pointed towards the Party's win under PM Modi.
"I had pointed out in my column dated January 6 ("BJP not winning UP would be the only surprise") that the quality and depth of BJP's 2014 victory in UP was so high that it would take a three times worse performance than Bihar to lose UP. In other words, 10% of BJP voters of 2014 had to shift loyalties for the party to lose UP in 2017, not 3%.
Even though BJP's vote share dropped by a few percentage points in exactly the same constituencies that it contested across 2014 and 2017, its massive margin of victory in 2014 gave it enough cushion to be able to absorb some of these vote share losses and still win these constituencies. Essentially, BJP's strategy of safeguarding its 2014 seats to minimise a drop in vote share has been its winning mantra in UP."
Read the full article here.