May 22, 2014

Modi win shows path to Parliament is through 11 states

In this Business Standard article, Praveen Chakravarty writes that "the 2014 Narendra Modi-led Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) victory can be termed India's black swan election". Excerpts from his article are below:



"Let's suppose, in June 2013, after Narendra Modi's anointment as BJP's prime ministerial candidate, he announced that the BJP will not contest elections in seven states in the south and east, and instead use his charisma to win 100 per cent of seats in the other states and, thus, propel the party to power. Most of us would have described such a decision as "insanity". Yet, that's almost what happened - the Modi-led National Democratic Alliance (NDA) won a whopping 90 per cent of all seats in the 11 largest "Hindi states" (allowing for a loose description of Hindi states to mean states other than the non-Hindi speaking states of the south and east of India), which sufficed to help the BJP form a government in New Delhi.....And the Modi-led NDA won 85 per cent of its total tally of seats from these "Hindi states". The last time a political party won a general election driven principally by wins in these states was the Janata Party's landslide victory in the 1977 anti-Emergency election, when it won 80 per cent of all its seats from these states. On average, over the last 11 general elections in 40 years, the winning alliance has won 60 per cent of its seats from the Hindi states and 40 per cent from the non-Hindi states".



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