Visiting Fellow Praveen Chakravarty writes in The Indian Express: " detailed analysis of nearly 25 years of electoral data, in each of Tamil Nadu’s 234 assembly constituencies in the last 10 elections (Lok Sabha and assembly) since 1991, provides some interesting insights."
"... The conventional wisdom is that the people of Tamil Nadu are yearning for a change from the Dravidian parties... The average combined contested vote share of the AIADMK and DMK held steady from 1991 to 2004, and started to decline steadily since the 2004 election, to hit an all-timelow in the 2014 Lok Sabha election. From a 45 per cent average combined contested vote share in 1991 to the peak of 47 per cent in 2004 for the two major Dravidian parties, it slid to 42 per cent in 2009 and to 35 per cent in 2014. This drop of 10 percentage points in vote share would be enough to swing any election, if all of it were captured by one entity... That there is a simmering longing for a non-Dravidian political outfit among voters in Tamil Nadu is indisputable from electoral data analysis..."