January 22, 2018

A Misleading Story of Job Creation

By Praveen Chakravarty, Jairam Ramesh

In this piece from The Hindu, Jairam Ramesh, Former Union Minister, and Praveen Chakravarty, Senior Resident Fellow, IDFC Institute, throw light on the misleading jobs data being quoted in the media.




"If one had to truly separate out GST- and demonetisation-induced formalisation effects to see the actaul growth in jobs, then the study should have compared the EPFO numbers of FY-2016 and FY-2015. We did exactly that. And what did we find? In FY-2015, the total number of contributing EPFO members grew 7%. In FY-2016, it grew 8%. But after demonetisation, in FY-2017, it grew 20% and by December 2017, it had grown a further 23%. Are we then saying that the Modi government did not produce enough jobs in the first two years but, miraculously, after demonetisation and the GST, there were jobs galore, as per the same EPFO data set? Cherry-picking data points (EPFO data) and time periods (FY-2017 and FY-2018) are old, time-tested statistical tricks to arrive at fallacious conclusions... India’s jobs situation is a very grim challenge that must be acknowledged, confronted and for which we must debate solutions."


Click here to read the full article

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