March 18, 2018

2019 Prophecies and March of Events

In this New Indian Express articleShankkar Aiyar, Visiting Senior Fellow at IDFC Institute, challenges conventional wisdom on electoral fortunes. Excerpts:


"Conventional wisdom is experiencing a sense of déja vu. Conventional wisdom has it that the exit of TDP led by N Chandrababu Naidu is eerily like 2004. Conventional wisdom has it that the series of losses in the Hindi heartland (diagnosed as the AAA verdict—agriculture, arithmetic, arrogance in some quarters) renders it vulnerable. Conventional wisdom has it that the bua-bhatija gambit of SP and BSP presents a formidable electoral arithmetic. Conventional wisdom has it that the Nitish Kumar-led regime in Bihar is headed downhill.


Conventional wisdom has it that the BJP has a tough fight on hand in Karnataka—primarily because the anti-corruption card is dented by the choice of B S Yeddyurappa as CM nominee—and it may not retain power in Rajasthan, Madhya Pradesh and Chhattisgarh. Conventional wisdom has prompted its ally Shiv Sena to predict the 2019 tally for BJP could dip by 100 seats. Conventional wisdom has it that the BJP will find it hard to repeat the 2014 performance. 


It is arguable that all of the notions and views may come to be. The loss of allies does impact the overall tally—remember, in 2004, the BJP had won 138 seats, just seven fewer than the Congress, but had fewer allies. The loss of an ally in Andhra Pradesh, possible loss of a partner in Maharashtra, absence of alliances as yet in Tamil Nadu and Telangana, a weak alliance in Bihar, with the LJP cautioning the BJP, could theoretically affect the overall tally."


Read the full article here.

Topic : State Capacity / In : OP-EDS
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