In this LiveMint article, Noah Smith, Assistant Professor of Finance at Stony Brook University writes about his picks for the big prize next year.
Pick No. 1:
"David Card: I had actually tipped University of California-Berkeley’s Card to get the prize this year. If he doesn’t get it at some point, it will be a great historical oversight. New empirical techniques—broadly classified under the heading of “natural experiments”—are taking the economics profession by storm. Eventually, at least one Nobel will be given to the people who pioneered the use of these incredibly influential techniques. Among these pioneers, Card stands out."
Pick No. 2:
"Nobuhiro Kiyotaki: Macroeconomics is the glamour division of economics—the topic on which the public most desperately seeks economists’ help. It has traditionally garnered an outsized share of Nobels, and the last macro prize came in 2011. This means that unless the Nobel committee has decided to shift its emphasis, a prize for macro is in some sense overdue."
Pick No. 3:
"Martin Weitzman: Harvard’s Weitzman is a true polymath. His contributions to economics are numerous and diverse. He is most famous for environmental economics—in particular, for emphasizing the risks from extreme climate change.
But that is just one small piece of Weitzman’s oeuvre. He has analysed the sources of stagflation. He has looked at the usefulness of profit-sharing inside companies. He has studied whether it’s more useful to tax pollution or to put a cap on it. He has contributed to the math that economists use to model individual decision-making. And he has provided one of the most insightful theories of the so-called equity premium—that stocks tend to earn higher returns than would seem justified by their riskiness."